Supplementary analysis comparing shock frequency estimates from multiple sectors with Cottrell et al., 2019 Nature Sustainability.

Compared to that previous paper, we are not using observational data but simulated data from ISIMIP, covering 6 resources from three sectors (water, fisheries, maize, rice, soybean, wheat). The sectors are not the same, since in the Cottrell et al. paper there are also livestock and aquaculture in addition to fisheries and agriculture.

Country shock frequency

from 1983 until 2013

To compare our global shock frequency and Figure 1 from Cottrell et al., 2019 panels e and c, I calculated the proportion of countries experiencing a shock per sector per year per climate model.

Linear models are fitted to temporal trends per output variable and climate model.

until the end of the century

From 1983 until 2100.

Country shock frequency with different smooth spans

1983-2013

Repeating the previous analysis with smooth spans for shocks from 0.25 to 0.75.

1983-2100

2070-2100

Decomposing the method for one fisheries model

Apecosm metrics for IPSL SSP 5.85 in the United States

Apecosm for several countries and IPSL SSP 585

BOATS for several countries and IPSL SSP 585

DPBM for several countries and IPSL SSP 585

ZooMSS for several countries and IPSL SSP 585

Cross-sector heat map

To compare Figure 3 panel b with our estimates for the same list of countries and the two climate models, we calculated the number of resources for which a shock is identified by 5-year bins. Although the resources are not the same, we could expect similar cross-sector shock hotspots.